dfmchn
Predict when populations of users or customers tip
Hype can't move this line. Only verifiable outcomes do.
No money. No seat. It doesn't move the price. It goes on your record — and in 28 days reality settles it.
by reality anchor — the price money can't pump
Analytics. Launched 1d ago on PeerPush, where it placed #77. Today, it's live, but nothing on the site has changed since we started watching. It's anchored at 201 pts.
It placed #77 on PeerPush with 3 votes. It also showed up on 1 other board — but didn't place in the top 25% on any of them, so none of them add to the price. Listing on twelve directories is free; placing well on them isn't.
A launch's opening price comes from where it placed on its own board, normalised across all 12 platforms we watch. That's deliberate: #1 on a small board beats #40 on a huge one. It's how a launch nobody saw can still be worth more than one everybody did.
No matter how much money goes in. There is no pump here — you can't make yourself right by buying more. The line only moves on things that actually happened: an award, revenue that grew, a new platform, code that shipped — or silence.
Moving right now. The clock only starts when a launch goes quiet.
We fetch this site every day and hash what's on it. A founder can post “still working on it” — but if they actually shipped, the page changes. That's the only claim we price: evidence, not announcements. The real question isn't “will this be huge?” — it's “will they still be moving in four weeks?”
The story so farEVERY MOVE, AND WHY▾
1 quiet day in between are left out — nothing happened on them. Repriced every day, no cliffs. A launch that goes quiet bleeds a little at a time, so there's never a drop you could have run from the night before.
Momentum on its boardDOESN'T MOVE THE PRICE▾
Daily tracking just started for this launch — the first point is on the board. A second reading lands with tomorrow's run, and the curve builds from there.
How the launch is moving on its own board, day by day. This is the crowd's attention — it does not move the reality price. Only verifiable outcomes do.
A flat line is normal: votes stop within a day or two of launch, on every board. What's unusual — and what actually counts — is a launch that keeps pulling votes long after its day is over.
Screenshots
1About
dfmchn uses behavioral stress testing to predict the specific moment a population of customers, users, or voters transitions from staying to leaving. By modeling populations with sigmoid curves and tipping points, the tool identifies the threshold where rising pressure becomes a cliff. The system is built to function using public data alone, allowing for analysis before actions or decisions are finalized.
Where it launched2 PLATFORMS▾
| Platform | Votes | Counts toward price | Link |
|---|---|---|---|
| PeerPushstrongest | 3 | sets the price | ↗ |
| BetaList | not published | no · not top 25% here | ↗ |
The board it did beston sets the price. Every other board only adds to it if the launch also landed in that board's top 25% — because just showing up somewhere isn't an achievement. Listing on twelve directories is free; placing well on them isn't.